Some Figures

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JohnC
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Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 31 Jan 2020, 00:14

Mr. Ferguson has just completed what would ordinarily be a full season in charge (46 games). This season will end after 44 games, so that is a slightly complicating factor. Numbers start to blur after a while, so there may be some catastrophic error in these numbers, but prima facie, they seem broadly in line with what one might expect....

Evans record [/b]
2017-18
P12 W4 D2 L6 F15 A16 Pts 14 PPG 1.167
2018-19
P 29 W13 D7 L9 F49 A38 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P41 W17 D9 L15 F64 A54 Pts 60 PPG 1.46 Projection over a 46 game season: 67.34

Ferguson Record
2018-2019
P17 W7 D3 L7 F24 A24 Pts 24 PPG 1.412
2019-20
P29 W13 D7 L9 F52 A36 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P46 W20 D10 L16 F76 A60 Pts 70 PPG 1.522

After 41:
P41 W17 D9 L15 F68 A58 Pts60 PPG 1.46 

What's interesting is that the Ferguson record after 41 games (equivalent to the Evans tenure) is virtually identical in every numerical respect.
The five games prior to Evans' dismissal yielded seven points; the comparable return for Ferguson was five points.
Last edited by JohnC on 31 Jan 2020, 13:29, edited 1 time in total.

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ashman
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Re: Some Figures

Post by ashman » 31 Jan 2020, 08:48

:roll: Well at least we don't have to put up with his touchline histrionics.
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bristleposh
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Re: Some Figures

Post by bristleposh » 31 Jan 2020, 09:19

JohnC wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 00:14
What's interesting is that the Ferguson record after 41 games (equivalent to the Evans tenure) is virtually identical in every numerical respect.
The five games prior to Evans' dismissal yielded seven points; the comparable return for Ferguson was five points.
What five games are comparable, has Fergie left?

in fact; as he left on the 26th Jan if you take the five games prior to the nearest date Ferguson has 9 points
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Gaz_Miller
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Re: Some Figures

Post by Gaz_Miller » 31 Jan 2020, 10:13

JohnC wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 00:14
Mr. Ferguson has just completed what would ordinarily be a full season in charge (46 games). This season will end after 44 games, so that is a slightly complicating factor. Numbers start to blur after a while, so there may be some catastrophic error in these numbers, but prima facie, they seem broadly in line with what one might expect....

Evans record [/b]
2017-18
P12 W4 D2 L6 F15 A16 Pts 14 PPG 1.167
2018-19
P 29 W13 D7 L9 F52 A36 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P41 W17 D9 L15 F67 A52 Pts 60 PPG 1.46 Projection over a 46 game season: 67.34

Ferguson Record
2018-2019
P17 W7 D3 L7 F24 A24 Pts 24 PPG 1.412
2019-20
P29 W13 D7 L9 F52 A36 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P46 W20 D10 L16 F76 A60 Pts 70 PPG 1.522

After 41:
P41 W17 D9 L15 F68 A58 Pts60 PPG 1.46 

What's interesting is that the Ferguson record after 41 games (equivalent to the Evans tenure) is virtually identical in every numerical respect.
The five games prior to Evans' dismissal yielded seven points; the comparable return for Ferguson was five points.


Good post John & thanks for taking the time out to collate the facts.

All in all, their records are pretty much identical. Ferguson has had a much bigger budget & he also inherited probably the best Posh player ever in Toney.


Still, he looks smarter on the touchline & he doesn't swear as much - they're the important facts.
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JohnC
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Re: Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 31 Jan 2020, 13:31

Gaz_Miller wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 10:13
JohnC wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 00:14
Mr. Ferguson has just completed what would ordinarily be a full season in charge (46 games). This season will end after 44 games, so that is a slightly complicating factor. Numbers start to blur after a while, so there may be some catastrophic error in these numbers, but prima facie, they seem broadly in line with what one might expect....

Evans record [/b]
2017-18
P12 W4 D2 L6 F15 A16 Pts 14 PPG 1.167
2018-19
P 29 W13 D7 L9 F49 A38 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P41 W17 D9 L15 F64 A54 Pts 60 PPG 1.46 Projection over a 46 game season: 67.34

Ferguson Record
2018-2019
P17 W7 D3 L7 F24 A24 Pts 24 PPG 1.412
2019-20
P29 W13 D7 L9 F52 A36 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P46 W20 D10 L16 F76 A60 Pts 70 PPG 1.522

After 41:
P41 W17 D9 L15 F68 A58 Pts60 PPG 1.46 

What's interesting is that the Ferguson record after 41 games (equivalent to the Evans tenure) is virtually identical in every numerical respect.
The five games prior to Evans' dismissal yielded seven points; the comparable return for Ferguson was five points.


Good post John & thanks for taking the time out to collate the facts.

All in all, their records are pretty much identical. Ferguson has had a much bigger budget & he also inherited probably the best Posh player ever in Toney.


Still, he looks smarter on the touchline & he doesn't swear as much - they're the important facts.

JohnC
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Re: Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 31 Jan 2020, 13:33

Gaz_Miller wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 10:13
JohnC wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 00:14
Mr. Ferguson has just completed what would ordinarily be a full season in charge (46 games). This season will end after 44 games, so that is a slightly complicating factor. Numbers start to blur after a while, so there may be some catastrophic error in these numbers, but prima facie, they seem broadly in line with what one might expect....

Evans record [/b]
2017-18
P12 W4 D2 L6 F15 A16 Pts 14 PPG 1.167
2018-19
P 29 W13 D7 L9 F49 A38 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P41 W17 D9 L15 F64 A54 Pts 60 PPG 1.46 Projection over a 46 game season: 67.34

Ferguson Record
2018-2019
P17 W7 D3 L7 F24 A24 Pts 24 PPG 1.412
2019-20
P29 W13 D7 L9 F52 A36 Pts 46 PPG 1.587
Overall
P46 W20 D10 L16 F76 A60 Pts 70 PPG 1.522

After 41:
P41 W17 D9 L15 F68 A58 Pts60 PPG 1.46 

What's interesting is that the Ferguson record after 41 games (equivalent to the Evans tenure) is virtually identical in every numerical respect.
The five games prior to Evans' dismissal yielded seven points; the comparable return for Ferguson was five points.


Good post John & thanks for taking the time out to collate the facts.

All in all, their records are pretty much identical. Ferguson has had a much bigger budget & he also inherited probably the best Posh player ever in Toney.


Still, he looks smarter on the touchline & he doesn't swear as much - they're the important facts.

JohnC
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Joined: 31 May 2011, 21:48

Re: Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 31 Jan 2020, 13:59

bristleposh wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 09:19
JohnC wrote:
31 Jan 2020, 00:14
What's interesting is that the Ferguson record after 41 games (equivalent to the Evans tenure) is virtually identical in every numerical respect.
The five games prior to Evans' dismissal yielded seven points; the comparable return for Ferguson was five points.
What five games are comparable, has Fergie left?

in fact; as he left on the 26th Jan if you take the five games prior to the nearest date Ferguson has 9 points
I looked at the last five games for which Evans was in charge (games 37-41 of his tenure) and saw that we garnered seven points from those games.
I then looked at games 37-41 of the current Ferguson tenure and saw that we lost three, won one and drew one, yielding four points (not five, as I originally posted). The point I wished to make is that a run of seven points from five games was the prelude to Evans' sacking; a run of four points from five games (five from seven if you include the Gillingham draw and the defeat at Wimbledon) for Ferguson prompted a reported half-a-million pound outlay on Taylor, along with two loan signings. Apologies if this seems a little convoluted, and further apologies if the numbers are a little awry, but I hope that the central point is clear: perceived adversity last season elicited a different response from the one to this season's run of two points from six games; let's hope that things work out better this season.

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bristleposh
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Re: Some Figures

Post by bristleposh » 31 Jan 2020, 14:12

...and if you were the owner you’d have persevered with an apology for a human being, whom presumably used the same gutter language to the owners and staff as he did to referees and players. I know I wouldn’t have put up with it, using Godwin’s law better off with Hitler
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JohnC
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Re: Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 31 Jan 2020, 23:00

I don't pretend to know anything about 'Godwin's law', and I'm not sure that Hitler has any relevance to a discussion about the performance of a League One football club.

I'll reiterate: I posted this as an analysis of performance, not yet another deprecation of the touchline behaviour of Messrs Evans and Rayner. They came as advertised. If pitchside decorum were a prerequisite for football management, then Neil Warnock, the most successful EFL manager in terms of securing promotions, would never have held down a job in football management. (I'm told, incidentally, that he spent some time as a coach at Posh.)

I don't think it's helpful to sidestep an analysis which seems to suggest that results under the current management show no improvement over those of the previous incumbent, be his name Evans or Rumplestiltskin.

The mid-season firing of a manager places a burden of expectation on the incoming manager: improvement is expected. Quite simply, after forty-six games, I haven't seen that improvement. A glance at the League One table doesn't offer much reassurance: I find it hard to believe that Coventry, Sunderland and Portsmouth won't overtake us after playing their numerous games in hand; if that happens, we'd be in seventh place, still looking apprehensively over our shoulders at Oxford and Doncaster. Last season we only had Doncaster to contend with in the run-in; this season, with fifteen games to go and multiple play-off rivals with whom to contend, it seems we face a tougher challenge. That has nothing to do with Messrs Evans and Raynor.

The Ipswich game offers a perfect opportunity to step forward and meet that challenge. Let's hope for the determined, skilful performance of which this re-constituted team seems capable.

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bristleposh
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Re: Some Figures

Post by bristleposh » 01 Feb 2020, 15:09

I get what you're saying, it just seems odd that as we are in a peachy run of form, hopefully to continue over the next two or three hours, you try with figures to infer we either should sack the manager now, or we should never have sacked the previous incumbent
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Bluemike
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Re: Some Figures

Post by Bluemike » 01 Feb 2020, 21:12

You've clearly put some work into this. Thanks.

thediceman
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Re: Some Figures

Post by thediceman » 01 Feb 2020, 22:02

Figures tell one story but you have also to considerate other variables that have led to the retrospective decisions on each managers employment such as working relationship and goodwill. Evans leaving was not purely for footballing reasons because if it had been then his sacking would have been obviously unjust whilst Fergie has a degree of goodwill due to past Posh managerial record which buys him a bit more time.
Last edited by thediceman on 02 Feb 2020, 19:59, edited 1 time in total.

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ashman
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Re: Some Figures

Post by ashman » 02 Feb 2020, 05:30

thediceman wrote:
01 Feb 2020, 22:02
Figures tell one story but you have also to considerable other variables that have led to the retrospective decisions on each managers employment such as working relationship and goodwill. Evans leaving was not purely for footballing reasons because if it had been then his sacking would have been obviously unjust whilst Fergie has a degree of goodwill due to past Posh managerial record which buys him a bit more time.
There is also the suspicion that DMac has eventually realised that many managerial turnovers that had been happening at the club was slowly getting us nowhere. He did say that he regretted sacking Fergie and that he would be able to keep his job for the length of the contract that he had signed. He probably thought the same before he appointed Evans and then slowly realised that Evans and Raynor were not the type of people that he could deal with. The reappointment of Darren was paramount to his happiness at the club. There is nothing wrong with this as it is his money that is being leached out on weekly basis and his enjoyment within the game is so important to him.
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JohnC
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Re: Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 03 Feb 2020, 01:34

bristleposh wrote:
01 Feb 2020, 15:09
I get what you're saying, it just seems odd that as we are in a peachy run of form, hopefully to continue over the next two or three hours, you try with figures to infer we either should sack the manager now, or we should never have sacked the previous incumbent
To simplify matters: based solely on team performance/achievement, I don't think we should have sacked Evans last season, just as I don't think we should have sacked Gary Johnson in 2011. Both Evans and Johnson secured promotion to the Championship with Rotherham and Yeovil respectively, and as I believe that both were sacked after less than a season in charge at Peterborough, and with the team in a play-off position, they deserved at least a full season in situ. it's pointless to speculate on what might or might not have happened had they not been dismissed -- Ferguson took over Johnson's fifth-place (I think) team which then finished sixth (I think), and subsequently won at Old Trafford. Ferguson inherited Evans' sixth place team, and finished seventh, failing to overturn Doncaster's game-in-hand advantage over a 17-game period.

Given my druthers, I'd try to make every EPL and EFL manager's contract unbreakable, but there are too many potential caveats to make that feasible.
Of the other sports teams I follow in this country, Northampton Saints coach Jim Mallinder recently had a ten-year stint in charge, winning unprecedented honours for the Saints. Northants County Cricket Club coach David Ripley will shortly start his eighth season in charge; again, securing a period of success unprecedented in the club's history. Last season, the Steelbacks were out of both limited overs competitions and languishing winless at the bottom of County Championship Division Two at the end of June. In the football world, Ripley would have been summarily dismissed, but he retained his position, and led his team to promotion.

So, no: I don't advocate sacking the current incumbent. I'm sure the Chairman is well aware of the average length of tenure of managers since he assumed control of the club. For comparison, in the NFL, Bill Belichick has just completed twenty-one years as Head Coach of the New England Patriots; the Pittsburgh Steelers have had three head coaches since 1969. Those two franchises are no strangers to success. In my view, there's a lot to be said for stability in coaching appointments. Of course, security of tenure doesn't increase the number of winners, but it militates against the febrile, instant-gratification compulsion which plays its part in demeaning professional sport.

JohnC
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Re: Some Figures

Post by JohnC » 03 Feb 2020, 23:46

thediceman wrote:
01 Feb 2020, 22:02
Figures tell one story but you have also to considerate other variables that have led to the retrospective decisions on each managers employment such as working relationship and goodwill. Evans leaving was not purely for footballing reasons because if it had been then his sacking would have been obviously unjust whilst Fergie has a degree of goodwill due to past Posh managerial record which buys him a bit more time.
I take your point that fans, as outsiders, are not privy to all aspects of a working relationship. I'm not sure that Evans' firing was not purely for footballing reasons, as I think that if we'd had a few more points on the board, or were second or third in the table, or were on a better run of form (like this season's current one, for example), he wouldn't have been fired.

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